Impact of Climate Change on the Productivity of Cassava in Nigeria
Mbanasor, Jude A; Nwachukwu, Ifeanyi N; Agwu, Nnanna M ; Onwusiribe, Ndubuisi C

The issue of climate has become a recurrent subject of global debate in recent times. The intensity of the debate is on the increase due to the enormity of the challenge posed by the phenomenon especially in the third world. Though the threat of climate is universal, agricultural production activities are generally more vulnerable than other sectors. The vulnerability of the Nigerian agricultural sector to climate change is of particular interest to policy makers, because agriculture is a key sector in the economy accounting for between 60-70% of the labour force and contributing about 40% to the GDP. In line with the foregoing, the study was carried out to examine the impact of climate change on the productivity of cassava with specific interest in assessing changes in climate variables; estimating growth rate in production and productivity of the enterprise and evaluating the impact of climate variables on the productivity of the enterprise. Analytically, trend analysis was performed in assessing changes in climate variables and estimating growth rate in production and productivity of the enterprise. The quadratic function of the multiple regression analysis was employed in order to ascertain the impacts of climate variables on the productivity of the enterprise. However, secondary data were collected from literature, National Root Crops Research Institute (NRCRI), National Meteorological Centre (NIMET), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), State Agricultural Development Programmes (ADPs), Food and Agriculture Organization data base, World Bank Statistical Bulletin, United Nations Development programme (UNDP) statistical reports and other sources. In the course of data analysis, trend analysis, log quadratic trend equation and multiple regression analysis were applied. The result of the trend analysis showed that cassava production trace out a positive linear trend while annual precipitation, temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2), over the period were unstable. However, the trend forecasts suggested increasing rates of cassava production, temperature and decreasing CO2 emissions in the next five years. The log quadratic equation revealed that cassava production and productivity recorded positive and significant growth during the period with a compound growth rates of 0.976 and 0.969 respectively. The multiple regression model showed that precipitation posted positive coefficient in the short run but imposed a negative effect on cassava productivity over a long period of time while temperature influenced cassava productivity negatively both in the short and long run. On the basis of findings, the study suggested the adoption of appropriate and proactive adaptation cum mitigation measures. These may include use of drought tolerant/resistant varieties, adoption of sustainable land management practices and intensification of campaigns to promote healthy environmental practices among citizenry.

Full Text: PDF     DOI: 10.15640/jaes.v4n1a18