The Impact of Climate Change and Climate Variability on The Agricultural Sector in Nickerie District
Nurmohamed Riad, Donk Peter

Rice is a very important agriculture product for Suriname, not only for local consumption but also for export. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that the global averaged surface temperature will increase by 0.3°C–1.7°C under RCP2.6 and 2.6°C–4.8°C under RCP8.5, and extreme precipitation events over wet tropical regions will very likely become more intense and more frequent. This might significantly impact the rice yield in the future. The first objective of this study was therefore to analyze historical changes in the climate and hydrology in Nickerie district. The second objective was to study the impact of projected climate change on the rice sector in Nickerie district by 2070-2100. Analysis has shown that the trend in the historical annual rainfall and the annual temperature have been non-significant (T-test, 95%). Historical El Niño and La Niña events, but also the reverse impacts, have affected the rainfall in Nickerie district. The regression models represent no or a negligible relationship between the rice yield, and temperature and rainfall. The water-balance studies have shown that less rainfall will be available by 2070-2100 at the beginning of the second crop season (April-May) and the beginning of the first crop season (October, November, December). This means that more irrigation water will be required in the future and new freshwater resources need to be developed.

Full Text: PDF     DOI: 10.15640/jaes.v6n1a6